Tuesday, 19 September 2017

Spillover from coupled effect of public policy and technology into new areas of services and manufacturing

Technological innovations coupled with complementary public policies have a spillover effect that transcends into new areas of services and manufacturing. Several dormant and stagnant industries benefit due to such an upward surge in demand of products and services. There are several segments that have set benchmark with their technological innovation and in turn have opened doors for growth of complementary industries.

1.       Electric Vehicles
Currently 3% of total vehicles in the world comprise of electric vehicles (EVs). Governments are encouraging automakers to develop their internal capabilities and put EVs on roads in next 10-15 years. While this seems like a feasible timeline there are certain factors that are detrimental to such growth plan. First of all OEMs doesn’t have the necessary research and development (R&D) capabilities to transition from internal combustion engines to battery powered technology. Further it is plagued by dearth of battery suppliers and inadequate availability of charging stations. However, the road does not seem gloomy after all, since there are technological giants such as Tesla who are pioneers of innovation in EV technology. In contrast, auto OEMs would require a joint collaborative effort for synchronizing their capabilities for achieving desired output.
Spillover effect will have positive effect on the following industries:
·         Battery manufacturers
·         Aluminium sheet manufacturers to take advantage of light weight auto body
·         Infrastructure for supporting charging stations
·         Electronics manufacturers for supplying accessories to charging stations and vehicles
Spillover effect will have negative effect on the following industries:
·         Steel manufacturers
·         IC engine
·         Gas and oil producers and suppliers
·         OEMs without dedicated R&D for electric vehicle technology

2.      Artificial Intelligence
Next on our list is artificial intelligence which has made a lot of noise in last five years. The exponential rise of digital data and online consumers has resulted in the use of AI for several features primarily in areas of NLP, text and speech recognition. However, it is not just limited to digital media, but has moved into other areas of automation and is fuelling the growth of drones and driver less cars. AI would create jobs for high skilled workers and would transform business from operating mode to controlling mode. This has been one of the talking points debated in last decade.
Spillover effect will have positive effect on the following industries:
·         Automation and AI driven technologies
·         Supporting technology such as IoT, Cloud computing etc.
·    Change from BPO  (Business Process Outsourcing) to BCO (Business Control Outsourcing)
Spillover effect will have negative effect on the following industries:
·         Service sector
·         Manual labor
·         Traditional manufacturing

3.      Blockchain
Blockchain technology has recently become the automatic choice of various industries. This is largely credited to the positive sentiment resulting from its short span success with cryptocurrencies. It is an old field of distributed systems which came into limelight in last few years. Decentralized control and in built trust mechanism is built for ensuring secure transactions, thanks to large computing power and consensus mechanism. It requires large amount of computation power for securing huge volume of digital transactions and would aid the dormant GPU industry, who are viewing it as a long term market. Bigger customer base and larger frequency of digital transactions, imposes additional requirement for computing hardware. Well, it is still early to predict its success, but with emergence of enterprise and public blockchain platforms, it seems like it might gain general acceptance in near future.
Spillover effect will have positive effect on the following industries:
·         GPU manufacturers
·         Cloud mining
·         Digital transaction
Spillover effect will have negative effect on the following industries:
·         Third party security

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